Tag Archive: Christine Lagarde


Christine Lagarde Christine Lagarde said austerity was only one of the measures needed to overcome the debt crisis

Inappropriate spending cuts could “strangle” growth prospects, the head of the IMF has warned.

Austerity programmes must be tailored to each economy, Christine Lagarde said, and not be “across the board”.

The International Monetary Fund has been one of those stressing the need for countries to cut their debts, but some fear this could hit growth.

The correct response to the eurozone debt crisis has been a major debate at World Economic Forum in Davos.

“We are not suggesting there should be fiscal consolidation across the board,” Ms Lagarde stressed.

“Some countries have to go full-speed ahead to do this fiscal consolidation, but other countries have space and room. They should explore what to do… in order to help themselves.

“It has to be tailor-made.”

One of those expressing concerns about the possible implications of fiscal consolidation at the gathering at the Swiss ski resort was US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner.

He told the annual meeting of political and business leaders on Friday that there was a risk of a recessionary “cycle” from austerity measures.

“There is a risk that every disappointment in growth will be met with an austerity that will feed the decline, and that is a cycle you have to arrest to solve financial crises,” Mr Geithner said.

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George Soros has warned that Europe is likely to face a “lost decade”

‘Progress’

Crisis-hit countries such as Greece and Spain are implementing deep government spending cuts and raising taxes in order to try to bring down their deficits.

“For parts of Europe for a long time, there will be no alternative to very substantial adjustment in budget deficits,” Mr Geithner said.

He is one of a number of leaders who have said this week that the deficit-cutting measures have been an important step in addressing the eurozone debt crisis.

Ms Lagarde echoed those on Saturday: “There is work under way. There is progress, as we see it,”

But some see these policies as potentially very damaging. Financier George Soros told the BBC that the fiscal cuts, which Germany supports, could even lead to a “lost decade” of economic stagnation in Europe.

“This German insistence on austerity could destroy the European Union,” he said. “This is reality, this is the harsh reality that we need to face.

“It is not written in stone, the future is not predetermined. We determine the future, so it would be well within the possibilities of the authorities to change it.”

A document, reportedly leaked to the Financial Times, has suggested that Germany could be asking for Greece to do more, including giving up the financial control of its tax and spending decisions to an administrator appointed by Brussels.

Firewall

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For the first time in a while leaders meeting here don’t seem to be stalked by the fear that the eurozone might blow up”

image of Stephanie Flanders Stephanie Flanders Economics editor, BBC News, Davos

Austerity is only one part of the solution, Christine Lagarde said.

She, and others on the panel, stressed the importance of reinforcing what is being referred to as the “firewall”, a much-expanded rescue fund made up of funds pledged by eurozone members.

“It is critical that the eurozone members actually develop a clear, simple, firewall that can operate both to limit the contagion and to provide this sort of act of trust in the eurozone so that the financing needs of that zone can actually be met,” she said.

The IMF managing director also spoke of the hundreds of billions of dollars of extra funds she wants to raise to support any crisis-hit countries, especially if a economic downturn takes hold.

Holding up her designer handbag she said: “I am here with my little bag to collect a bit of money.”

“There will be needs in the eurozone, no doubt about it, but in central and eastern Europe there will be needs as well. And in other countries including in low income countries, including in middle income countries, there will be needs. Short term for some, long term for others.”

The UK has been one of those resistant to pledging extra funds for the IMF to help eurozone countries, but there have been indications in recent days that its stance is softening.

“I think there is a case for increasing IMF resources and I think that will also be a way of demonstrating that the world wants to help… solve the world’s problems,” UK Chancellor George Osborne told the Davos audience.

But, like his US counterpart Tim Geither, he said any additional help would be conditional upon Eurozone countries demonstrating they were doing all they could do help fellow members.

“There aren’t going to be further contributions to the IMF from other G20 countries, including Britain, unless we see the colour of their money, and I think that’s a reasonable request.”

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Insider’s guide: Why business leaders go to Davos

Debt deal

For the first time in a while, leaders meeting in Davos don’t seem to be stalked by the fear that the eurozone might blow up, the BBC’s economics editor Stephanie Flanders reports.

But many of the sessions have been discussing what still needs to be done.

“The fact that we’re still, at the beginning of 2012, talking about Greece – again – is a sign that this problem has not been dealt with,” George Osborne said.

“The danger here is that the tail wags the dog throughout this crisis. In other words, the inability to deal with specific problems with the periphery causes shock waves across the whole European economy and the world economy,” he added.

Talks reconvened on Saturday between the Greek government and representatives of its private creditors, including banks and hedge funds.

It is hoped that a deal to renegotiate the country’s debt can be concluded before a meeting of the European Council on Monday. An agreement is a precondition for receiving further bailout funds from European authorities and the IMF.

“Concluding the deal that will lead to a more sustainable situation in Greece, I think actually is fundamental to stability in the Eurozone,” Mr Osborne said.

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Davos 2012

IMF forecast IMF chief Christine Lagarde has warned of a ’1930s moment’

The world’s economy is “deeply into the danger zone” because of risks from the eurozone, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said.

The IMF predicts the global economy will grow by 3.25% in 2012, down from an earlier forecast of 4%.

The growth forecast for the UK economy has been cut to 0.6% from 1.6%.

But the eurozone is set for a “mild recession” in 2012, with GDP expected to shrink by 0.5%, compared with a previous forecast of 1.1% growth.

Growth estimates have been reduced for the main eurozone countries, including Germany, which is widely seen as the powerhouse of the region.

Germany is forecast to grow 0.3% in 2012, down from the 1.3% originally predicted in September.

France is expected to show 0.2% growth in 2012, down from 1.4%.

However, the IMF stands by its 1.8% growth prediction for the US, based on recent strong domestic data on jobs and manufacturing.

Risk of ‘spillovers’

Emerging markets, such as central and eastern Europe and Asia, could also be hit by the eurozone crisis.

The IMF said: “While these markets have been quite resilient to shocks and developments in major economies in the past year, recent indicators have weakened significantly and the general business climate has deteriorated.”

The IMF said Europe’s most pressing challenge was to restore confidence and put an end to the crisis in the euro area.

It added that world economies needed “decisive and consistent policy action” to improve the current financial environment.

“There are three requirements for a more resilient recovery: sustained but gradual adjustment, ample liquidity and easy monetary policy, mainly in advanced economies, and restored confidence in policymakers’ ability to act.”

Separately, EU economic affairs commissioner Olli Rehn said he expected a “moderate recession” across Europe in the first half of this year.

On Monday, IMF chief Christine Lagarde warned the global economy could fall into an economic spiral reminiscent of the 1930s unless action was taken on the eurozone crisis.

In its update to its September report, the IMF warned that the “United States and other advanced economies are susceptible to spillovers from a potential intensification of the eurozone crisis”.

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Global Economy

French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel at the Chancellery in Berlin, 9 Jan 12
Germany is now clearly the stronger partner in the Berlin-Paris alliance

France’s President Nicolas Sarkozy has begun eurozone crisis talks in Berlin with the German chancellor amid gloomy economic prospects for 2012.

EU leaders are facing multiple pressures on the 17-nation eurozone in the run-up to a summit on 30 January.

Chancellor Angela Merkel insists on tougher penalties for countries that violate eurozone budget rules.

The liquidity of European banks remains a big worry, as economic stagnation takes its toll on lending.

Economic data suggest that the eurozone is heading for recession in 2012. The German economy remains much healthier than the struggling eurozone periphery economies, especially Greece and Italy.

The need to revive growth and create jobs is high on the EU leaders’ agenda, although many economists argue that the drive for austerity is stifling growth prospects.

Controversial taxMr Sarkozy has suggested France could introduce a financial transaction tax as early as February, though Germany says such a tax must be EU-wide.

The UK government says it will only consider introducing such a tax if there is global agreement on it.

Mr Sarkozy is anxious for France to keep its cherished AAA credit rating as he campaigns for re-election in April.

He holds the banks largely responsible for the debt crisis and sees the financial transaction tax as a fair measure to ease the burden on taxpayers – a message that may appeal to voters.

Twenty-six of the EU’s 27 members have agreed in principle to a new, inter-governmental treaty to stabilise the euro. The UK refused to sign.

However, it is not yet clear how the treaty would operate alongside existing EU structures.

The so-called “fiscal compact” will include automatic sanctions, which can only be blocked by a majority of powerful states.

Mrs Merkel will meet International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief Christine Lagarde in Berlin on Tuesday, to consider how to proceed with the rescues of debt-laden eurozone economies.

Negotiations on a second massive bailout for Greece will have to be completed soon if it is to avoid a disorderly default.

Italy and Spain are also saddled with huge debts, which will have to be refinanced this year. Their borrowing costs remain unsustainably high and neither economy could be bailed out with the eurozone’s current rescue fund.

Hungary – outside the eurozone but dependent on it – has seen its sovereign debt downgraded to junk status. It is seeking an IMF standby loan amid a row over its economic policies and weak investor confidence.

Global Economy

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